🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Officials in Kazakhstan have implemented stricter rules to uphold Western sanctions against neighbouring Russia (Kazakhstan’s largest trade partner).

2. 🇩🇪 Germany: A referendum to accelerate Berlin’s climate policies failed on Sunday. It would’ve required the city to reach net zero by 2030, fifteen years before the rest of Germany.

3. 🇹🇼 Taiwan: Honduras officially ended 72-years of relations with Taiwan on Sunday, and switched its recognition to Beijing. Taiwan said Honduras had demanded billions of dollars to maintain relations.

4. 🇨🇺 Cuba: More than two-thirds of eligible Cubans voted on Sunday to elect a new opposition-free parliament. Pro-democracy figures had hoped more citizens would abstain from voting, to express their frustration with the country’s direction.

5. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: The ruling junta has suspended a French broadcaster, France24, after the network aired an interview with a local Al Qaeda leader. The junta expelled the French army last year.

🇮🇱 ISRAEL | POLITICS

Netanyahu finally flinches after months of protests

Briefly: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu suspended his controversial judicial reforms on Monday after the country’s turmoil started to spread to the military, universities and beyond. The defiant PM said he’ll push the reforms again in late April when Israel’s Knesset (parliament) returns from recess.

The crisis escalated over the weekend when Israel’s defence minister warned the proposed overhaul (weakening the Supreme Court) was endangering Israel’s security; he said many armed force reservists were now refusing to serve.

But when Bibi promptly fired the defence minister, half a million Israelis took to the streets, and many stuck around until they were water-cannoned home at 3 AM.

Israel’s main trade union also called a national strike, shuttering flights, universities, Israeli embassies abroad, and even the country’s McDonald’s branches.

Intrigue’s take: Netanyahu is one of the world’s savviest political operators, but he’s now tied himself up in a classic Gordian knot:

• He can’t afford the legislation’s opponents grinding the country to a halt any longer, and yet

• He can’t afford to abandon the legislation either, as some of its backers have threatened to ditch Bibi’s fragile coalition and trigger new elections.

Bibi’s decision to briefly suspend the judicial overhaul buys him some time to lower the temperature and maybe negotiate a way forward. He’s shown a remarkable instinct for this kind of political survival over the years. But this time around, might he have flown too close to the sun?

Also worth noting:

• Polling shows only 17% of Israelis support the current reform proposals.

• Israel’s closest ally (the US) has expressed caution over the reforms.

• In exchange for backing the delay, Netanyahu agreed to allow one of his coalition’s most right-wing members to form and oversee a new Israeli National Guard, which some are calling a “personal militia”.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Policyware

🇷🇺 RUSSIA | NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Russia to deploy tactical nukes to Belarus

Briefly: Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus by July. Putin said he took the decision after the UK announced it was supplying Ukraine with anti-tank munitions containing depleted uranium.

The West criticised the move as a dangerous escalation, noting the UK’s depleted uranium shells aren’t nuclear weapons: they’ve been stripped of most radioactive material, but have extra density that can pierce a tank’s armour.

On the other hand, tactical nukes can flatten cities (and strategic nukes can flatten countries). For his part, Putin pointed out that the US has stationed nuclear weapons in Europe for decades.

Intrigue’s take: Anyone else feel deja-vu? Putin has made various nuclear threats since invading Ukraine, but little has come of it so far.

• In February 2022, he put Russia’s nuclear arsenal on high alert.

• In September 2022, Putin said his nuclear threats were “not a bluff”.

• In February 2023, he suspended Russia’s participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty.

Even Russian analysts quoted by state media aren’t sure Moscow will actually go though with the plans.

Still, we’re talking about nukes here. And Belarus already amended its constitution back in December 2021 to host them. So on this topic (if nothing else), we continue to take Putin at his word.

Also worth noting:

• Speaking of taking Putin at his word, his announcement comes just days after he and Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the removal of all nuclear weapons stationed in third countries – awkward.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• Bali wants to make it harder for Russians and Ukrainians to get visas ($)

• Taiwan can’t win the recognition war with China, a new strategy is needed

• Qatar’s debut on the world stage

• Did Shell's oil divestments improve Nigeria's environment? ($)

• Will North America take advantage of its global strength?

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

Analyst Tiziano Breda told Intrigue Outloud that El Salvador’s ‘state of exception’ is leading to a spectacular drop in violent crime, but could cause broader harm if it continues indefinitely. Hear more on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.

Yesterday’s poll: How do you think the TikTok CEO handled his first congressional hearing?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Given what he was up against, Mr Chew handled it like a pro (20%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 His careful answers just raised more questions (73%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (7%)

Your two cents:

• 👎 S.C: “Unfortunately those who grilled the CEO were utterly incompetent for the most part. As someone advocating in Europe for a ban, they did significant damage to the ban case here by asking bizarre questions, showing a complete lack of understanding of the risks, technology or its use as a hybrid weapon by China.”

• 🖋️ T.F: “The US response to international competition is to sanction, ban or invade. These side shows are a tool to justify their inability to compete on a level playing field.”