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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The world holds its breath as America votes |
2️⃣ There’s still no snow on Mount Fuji |
3️⃣ Fine of the day |
Hi Intriguer. One of the ultimate intellectual flexes is to say you studied Chaucer. Give it a try — I mean, just say you studied Chaucer. Please don’t actually study Chaucer, it’s too hard. He’s the 14th century father of English literature and was a poet, philosopher, parliamentarian, and even diplomat.
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One of the many modern English words he helped evolve into current usage is ‘momentum’, which is my word of the day because three intriguing data points dropped over the weekend, each claiming some kind of new momentum:
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The New York Times reported that Russia gained more territory in Ukraine last month than at any other point in the last two years, suggesting the momentum could be tipping back in Russia’s favour (at staggering cost)
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported that it’s now sitting on a record $325B pile of cash after selling half its Apple shares last quarter, which could reflect pessimism about the economy’s momentum, and
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Highly regarded US pollster Ann Selzer dropped a bombshell report suggesting Kamala Harris could now be leading in the Trump stronghold of Iowa, thanks to surging support among women.
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On election-eve, we’ll focus on that third bullet point today, though as we’ll see below, they’re all linked.
THE HEADLINES
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Israel conducts raid in Syria.
Israel says it’s carried out a ground operation into Syrian territory and seized a Syrian citizen with alleged links to Iran. It’s the first time in this war that Israel has confirmed its troops have conducted a ground raid inside Syria.
Pro-EU Moldovan leader on track for re-election.
Maia Sandu, the pro-EU Moldovan president and former World Bank economist, looks set to keep her post according to preliminary results putting her at just above 53% of the vote. Sandu fell short of winning outright during last month’s first round of voting, and local authorities have repeatedly alleged Russian interference.
Armed group takes 200 Bolivian soldiers hostage.
An armed group with alleged ties to Bolivia’s former president, Evo Morales, has taken at least 200 soldiers hostage after capturing a military facility in central Bolivia. It may be part of an ongoing power struggle between two factions of the same left-leaning ruling party: one loyal to Morales, and the other loyal to current President Arce.
Oil rises on extension of production cuts.
The price of oil has spiked more than 2% after OPEC+ delayed plans to increase output earlier today (Monday). The decision came down to weak demand, especially from China.
Valencia protesters hurl mud at king.
Angry crowds in Valencia have thrown insults and mud at King Felipe and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, as anger rises over last week’s response to historic flash flooding which killed at least 214 people last week. There’s also a communal spirit on display as thousands of volunteers pour in to help with the clean-up operation.
TOP STORY
The world holds its breath (again) as the US votes
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A hundred million or so Americans will head to the polls to choose their next president tomorrow (Tuesday), joining the record 75 million folks who’ve already voted.
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Meanwhile, foreign diplomats will head in to work at Washington’s ~175 foreign embassies to offer their home governments some final thoughts on where they see this all headed. And they’ll be seeking to answer the same two questions as everyone else:
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Who’s gonna win?
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Diplomats will lean on their contacts in the major parties and pollsters for any extra insight, but you could find a data point to claim almost any outcome at this stage. Meanwhile, polls keep pointing to a historically tight race: neither candidate has managed a five-point lead at any stage, for the first time in more than half a century.
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But here’s the thing: there’s every chance this simply reflects the current state of US polling – wracked with second-guessing and course-correction – more than it reflects the current state of the actual race, which could well deliver a decisive result tomorrow.
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The other guide embassies will lean on is modern history, which could likewise point you in either direction:
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No incumbent party has won re-election with a president’s approval so low, but
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No incumbent party has lost re-election with an economy this good, and
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No modern candidate has been so disliked in back-to-back elections as Trump.
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So whoever wins, they’ll be bucking a trend.
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And so… what does this election mean for us?
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Every foreign government will say publicly they can deal with whoever the American people elect as president. But in the privacy of their encrypted cable systems, those diplomats will be offering some frank assessments of the continuity and predictability of Harris versus the more transactional and unilateral style of Trump.
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So here’s a quick tour of how Embassy Row will be thinking it all through:
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🇨🇳 China
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Beijing has mostly sought to lay low this cycle, and that probably reflects four factors: i) with mounting problems back home, Xi Jinping really wants stability with the US at this point; ii) stability is even sweeter when you’ve just spent the last three US electoral cycles as a fiery bipartisan talking point; iii) while there are differences in rhetoric – and Trump is pledging higher tariffs – both candidates broadly want to counter China’s assertive vibes; and therefore iv) both election outcomes promise a tough road ahead for Xi.
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Still, with stability front of mind, he’ll likely prefer the predictability and continuity of a Harris presidency.
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🇷🇺 Russia
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One candidate has consistently tended towards a) US alliance scepticism, b) US isolationism, and therefore c) cutting US defence assistance to Ukraine: Donald Trump. And while Trump frames these positions as ending wars and refocusing on priorities back home, they’d still benefit Putin, who’ll therefore realistically prefer a Trump presidency.
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But beyond that, Putin will also welcome (and encourage) any electoral chaos. Georgia’s secretary of state has just called BS on yet another Russia-seeded story about foreigners voting in the US election, and there’ll be more — including to amplify what would ordinarily be the inevitable and inconsequential irregularities of such a vast election.
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Putin’s aim here is to erode Americans’ trust in their democracy: that leads to a weaker, more inwardly-focused, and less credible America, which all leaves more space for Russia to pursue its aims (like invading Ukraine).
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🇮🇷 Iran
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This one’s easy considering Iran is seeking to assassinate only one of the two candidates: Donald Trump. That’s a response to Trump’s 2020 order to assassinate a top Iranian general (Soleimani), plus his broader ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran while in office.
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But it also reflects the fact that it’s Harris’s party that’s typically been more open to dialogue as a way to talk Iran off its nuclear path. So on both fronts, it follows that Tehran would realistically prefer a Harris presidency.
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🇮🇱 Israel
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Sure, there are differences in dialogue, but both US candidates fundamentally back Israel. Still, Trump hasn’t meaningfully criticised the way Israel has conducted its war, so Netanyahu’s hard-line coalition will expect a freer hand under a Trump 2.0 presidency. And that’s reflected in polling, which suggests Israelis would much prefer Trump.
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🇮🇳 India
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The bipartisan US approach to China translates to a bipartisan approach to India, too: both candidates hope India can help counterbalance China. So India will come out of this election just fine either way, though Narendra Modi’s more authoritarian vibes at home and more assertive style abroad will likely find more space in a world where Trump has more clearly delineated US interests.
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🇪🇺 Europe
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Only one candidate has threatened to pull the US out of the 75-year-old NATO alliance that’s helped Europe thrive, plus ‘end’ the war on Europe’s doorstep (presumably by freezing it and ceding Ukrainian land to Moscow) — that candidate is Donald Trump.
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So while Europeans have been rattled by the Biden-Harris administration’s occasional solo act (eg, funnelling vast subsidies to US firms), and while Trump’s team says he just wants partners rather than freeloaders, Europe (minus Hungary) wants a Harris win.
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🌎 Latin America
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Trump’s pledge to conduct mass deportations and slap tariffs on all US imports has rattled much of the region given its own reliance on remittances from — and exports to — the world’s largest economy. That said, the country with most at stake (Mexico) ended up securing a pretty functional US relationship under Trump 1.0, so there’s a quiet hope across the region that some similar equilibrium might emerge under Trump 2.0.
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🌏 Other allies (the Five Eyes, Japan, Korea, Philippines)
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These allies typically want a continued, stabilising US presence in their respective regions plus ongoing US trade and investment – that combination is partly what’s allowed them to flourish. And it’s really Harris promising that kind of continuity with fewer strings attached, so these allies will quietly hope for her success, though will be braced for either outcome.
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And while not a formal ally, Taiwan will have been spooked by Trump’s a) fatalism around a mainland invasion, b) accusing Taiwan of harming the US semiconductor sector, and c) suggesting Taiwan should pay more for US support. So while Taiwan will have taken some comfort from Trump 1.0’s tough-on-China approach, the prospect of Trump 2.0 has left folks on the democratic island rattled.
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Anyway, DC’s ~175 embassies will hit send on their cables along the above lines, then do what the rest of us do: scroll X and watch cable news to see what happens next.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Will the real America please stand up? Is it Harris’s America, or is it Trump’s America? Well, three election cycles after the modern world first asked this kind of question, the answer looks pretty clear to us at this point: it’s both.
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And world capitals are already adjusting to that dual-track reality, regardless of who ends up in the White House next: sure, the above capitals might hold their breath or breathe sighs of relief after tomorrow’s outcome, but 2028 is just around the corner. And you can see what that means, for example, in a weekend tweet by Poland’s leader, Donald Tusk: “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over”.
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As for what it means for the US itself? The superpower has a long history of straddling conflicting philosophies and political currents. In fact, you could argue that these very same competitive tensions over the decades have helped drive America’s capability for renewal at home and course correction abroad.
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But the key has always been in finding a common vision that both ‘Americas’ can back. And that’s one of the many big challenges for whoever wins tomorrow.
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Also worth noting:
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Our very own John and Kristen dug into the latest election updates in their most recent podcast episode. Plus, don’t miss the next edition of Election Intrigue, our weekly briefing on what the US election means for the world (and vice versa).
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇯🇵 Japan: The iconic Mount Fuji has yet to see snow this season after Japan recorded its hottest summer since records began in 1898. Snow caps usually emerge by early October, but researchers say climate change tripled the likelihood of this year’s record-breaking heatwave.
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🇻🇦 Vatican City: The wide-ranging hacking scandal rocking Italian politics is now engulfing foreign powers, including Israel and even the Vatican. According to local media reports (that are now starting to sound like an implausible Hollywood script), Israeli agents were after the private information of wealthy Russians to then pass to the Vatican (for reasons currently unknown).
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: Russia and Indonesia have begun their first joint naval drills today (Monday), just two weeks after President Prabowo Subianto took office. Prabowo visited Putin in Moscow this past July, and has pledged to build a “web of strong friendships” in pursuit of Indonesia’s priorities.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: Eight of Mexico’s 11 supreme court judges have announced they’ll step down rather than run in next year’s judicial elections as required by the country’s controversial new reforms. Previously, judges on Mexico’s highest court were selected by the senate.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: Turkey’s energy minister has announced he’ll likely drop Germany’s Siemens from its role in Turkey’s Russia-built nuclear power plant, citing delays the minister claims are politically motivated. He’s reportedly identified a China-based firm as the likely replacement for Siemens parts.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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Delegates at this year’s UN biodiversity conference have had to stay at by-the-hour ‘love motels’ after regular hotels in Cali, Colombia filled up.
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Australian mathematicians are now reporting that actually, monkeys could not eventually recreate Shakespeare’s works.
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The Vatican has unveiled its new anime-style mascot called Luce (‘light’ in Italian), who’ll serve as the pilgrim-styled mascot of the 2025 jubilee year.
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Police in Australia have recovered 40,000 limited-edition Bluey coins just a short distance from the warehouse where they were stolen earlier this year.
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And police in London have arrested a 63-year-old man over the theft of 22 tonnes of cheese. You know we strive to be strictly apolitical here, but nobody needs that much cheese.
FINE OF THE DAY
How we imagine Russia’s Google fine if lodged via Venmo.
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Vladimir Putin continues to channel his 1990s-era Dr Evil vibes, this time by slapping Google with a novelty-sized fine of $2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
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That’s 36 zeros. Or if you need a name, it’s an undecillion, which is:
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Something like 10 billion trillion times Google’s valuation, and
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220 million trillion times the entire world GDP.
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Why? The court case actually pre-dates Putin’s full attempted invasion of Ukraine, and relates to YouTube’s 2021 decision to remove various Russian propaganda channels.
DAILY POLL
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Do you think the polls are right and tomorrow’s US election will be close? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Where do you see Gulf influence headed?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⬆️ Up – Gulf countries are now serious players (25%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ➡️ Stable – they’re middle powers and will remain so (50%)
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⬇️ Down – as the world weans itself off oil, the Gulf will lose clout (23%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
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Your two cents:
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➡️ D.D: “Despite all their “diversification” efforts, they remain autocratic petrostates that depend on imported labor and tech. They’ll remain regionally powerful as long as we remain hooked on oil. I unfortunately do not see us breaking our addiction in time to save nature.”
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⬆️ M.M: “They remain geographically important at the cross-roads of Asia, Europe and Africa, and have wisely been investing in non-oil sectors with their oil profits to ensure new sources of influence to replace it.”
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⬇️ C.W: “As the world weans itself off of oil, for political reasons if not economic, the Middle East becomes less important.”
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