Intrigue insight: The Iran war, day 27

Since our last briefing hit your inbox, here’s what’s happened…

At the negotiation table…

• More details have emerged around Trump’s mooted 15-point plan, demanding nuclear dismantling, zero local enrichment, strict missile limits, and a full Hormuz re-opening.

• For its part, Iran’s regime has continued to mock the idea of talks (“do not call your own defeat an agreement”), before giving its own maximalist demands including the US closing all bases in the region, and paying full war reparations.

• Comment: As we explored yesterday, for a regime now prosecuting a full-blown attritional strategy of survival, it’s hard to see it agreeing to hand over its leverage in return for a ceasefire that’d help the US rearm and stabilise markets.

On the battlefield…

• Last week’s Israeli hits on Iranian naval assets in the Caspian? We flagged at the time they would “sever a key Iran-Russia weapons supply corridor”, and sure enough, that’s now getting confirmed in The Wall Street Journal.

And in the markets…

• Oil is somehow still trading below $100, helped by Iran softening its stance by allowing “non-hostile” (non-US/Israeli) ships to transit Hormuz with coordination.

• Still, early economic data suggests the war is now taking its toll: S&P Global’s latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) hints at higher input costs and slower growth (aka stagflation risks) across Europe, the US, Japan, Australia, and beyond.

Energy dilemma.

If it feels like everyone around you is now an oil expert, it’s critical you immediately one-up them by smugly highlighting three other energy stories they missed, starting with… 

1. 🔋 Batteries are charging (ahead)

While oil majors like Chevron (12%+) and BP (17%+) have naturally enjoyed a share bump with their main product suddenly earning a cool 40%+ wartime premium, China’s top battery giants like CATL (19%+), Sungrow (19%+) and BYD (22%+) have done even better.

Why? Sure, the Iranian regime’s Hormuz survival strategy delivers an immediate sugar hit to any oil majors still able to deliver kilojoules to panicky customers.

But in parallel, investors are betting some of those same customers and governments will only redouble their longer-term pivot away from any foreign oil dependency, not so much in the spirit of hugging trees, but in the spirit of raw, undiluted self-interest.

So it makes sense to add more batteries to the energy mix, but you’ll need a) a metric butt-load (China alone deployed ~190GWh / $15B last year to shave maybe 1% off its dependency); and b) you’ve often got to pair it all with grid upgrades (China is pledging another $720B over the next five years).

The good news, however, is battery tech keeps getting cheaper (67% down since 2020) and better (BYD just announced it can fully charge an EV in nine minutes).

The trickier news for everyone else is we just risk trading one dependency (Hormuz) for another: China controls ~70% of global supply, and closer to 100% for critical inputs.

Now join us way down the other end of the clean energy spectrum for an update on…

2. 🏭 Coal’s back(stop)

The Newcastle coal benchmark (out of Australia’s east coast) is up ~20% since the war, with individual producers enjoying similar share bumps.

Why? As oil and gas prices surge, priced-out buyers are switching to coal: eg, Thailand is firing up two coal plants it just decommissioned, Korea has eased its coal cap, and even Indonesia (the world’s top coal exporter) says it’s now prioritising its own power plants.

And it’s not just in Hormuz-dependent Asia: over in Europe, Italy’s energy minister is flagging the possibility of reactivating reserve plants, while Germany’s energy mix has already seen a 2% coal spike since the war.

As capitals pivot hard to energy security over purity, those net zero targets might fade further over the horizon. And if coal is the quick fix, then join us way down the other end of the speedometer to finish with…

3. ☢️ Going nuclear.

We know what you’re thinking: if the Iran war is driving oil, gas, batteries, and coal up, it must be driving a nuclear boom too, right? Hah, no.

Canada’s Cameco (the clearest pure-play uranium producer) is now down 11%. America’s Constellation (the largest US operator) is down ~8%. Global uranium ETFs are down 4%.

Why?

A few reasons, including…

• Capitals are frontloading rapid fixes like coal rather than waiting years for nuclear

• Nuclear fuel contracts are often locked long-term, meaning fewer sugar hits, and

• Those nuclear firms above already had a bumper 2025 (Cameco delivered 78%!) amid broader tailwinds from AI and beyond, so there’s a cash-in effect here too.

But if you were lucky enough to already have nuclear power online, you’re sitting pretty: for example, folks in France (~65% nuclear) are now projected to pay a ~quarter of what those Italians next door will pay for power in Q2.

Intrigue’s Take

One interesting lesson from the Iran war is markets don’t care about your priors: whether the solution is clean or dirty, that entire question is now downstream of how quickly you can deliver those sweet sweet kilojoules to entire societies that’ve flourished on an assumption of cheap, easy, and reliable access. A crisis has the power to clarify immediate stakes, even if it ends up obscuring them longer-term.

Another is we’re really seeing economies shuffle rather than eliminate their dependencies, whether it’s from Hormuz to Huizhou (major BYD hub but also awesome alliteration), or from Nord Stream to New Orleans. The reality is, while everyone dreams of pulling up the drawbridge, the closest anyone now gets to genuine energy autarchy is small economies blessed with exceptional geographies (think Iceland or Paraguay).

The third lesson here might have something to do with strategic variety. Relying on a single (imported!) source to power your entire economy is clearly high-risk, but the trick here might be less about simply diluting your dependency and more about figuring out an energy mix that leverages the immediate deliverability and flexibility of hydrocarbons to deliver the longer-term sustainability and strategic benefits of renewables.

Today’s briefing is presented by…

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

The Intrigue jobs board

• Senior Director, Global Human Rights @ Coca-Cola in Singapore

• Programs @ Centre for International Governance Innovation in Ontario

• Director, International Security @ Royal United Services Institute in London

• Legislative Affairs Coordinator @ US Treasury Dept in Washington, D.C.

Sports jersey of the day

The Belgian football team has just unveiled its new away jersey, and rather than cram in 23 different sponsors (like Austria’s TSV Hartberg), or emblazon the front with Burger King (like Spain’s Getafe), the Belgians have done something a little more intriguing…

This new jersey above actually pays homage to Belgium’s famed artist, René Magritte! The shirt’s pastel palette is reminiscent of Magritte’s surrealist current, while the inscription ‘Ceci n’est pas un maillot’ (This is not a jersey) is a shout-out to Magritte’s most famous painting (of a pipe), captioned ‘Ceci n’est pas un pipe’ (This is not a pipe).

That latter pipe work is at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art. If you do check it out, please please please recreate the classic joke, which involves tweeting a pic of ‘Ceci n’est pas un pipe’, with a caption like, “I don’t speak French but wow, what a great pipe!”

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think is lying about these talks?

🇮🇷 Iran (21%)
🇺🇸 Trump (70%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (9%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ C.C: “Both sides are lying. Trump needs to save face as the regime didn't collapse, bringing economic and political consequences to the mid-terms. The Iranians, also to save face. They can't look weak. To stay in power they need to show they are besting Israel and the U.S. or at least forcing negotiations.”