Intrigue Insight: Iran war, day 21

In the energy markets:

• European gas prices are up another 30% after an Iranian missile hit the world’s largest LNG export hub in Qatar. Details are still emerging, but that’s a $60B facility, built over 25+ years, supplying ~20% of the world’s LNG… now at risk. LNG prices are still, however, at barely a fifth of their 2022 crisis levels.

• The Iranians say it was all retaliation for earlier Israeli hits on the world’s biggest gasfield in Iran, though the regime has hit energy targets since day one. Either way, President Trump has voiced anger at his Israeli allies for the lack of a heads-up, while threatening to blow up Iran’s field himself if Iran hits Qatar again.

• Comment: Trump’s intervention is an attempt to manage escalation and normalise energy markets, though with energy infrastructure now ablaze in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, that ship might’ve sailed (if it weren’t stranded in Hormuz).

On the battlefield:

• Iran has confirmed Israel took out its intelligence minister (Khatib), marking the third top regime death in as many days (after Larijani and the Basij chief).

• Meanwhile, the Israelis have now hit Iranian navy targets in the Caspian Sea, widening Israel’s initial focus beyond eastern, southern, and central Iran.

• Comment: With Khatib et al, the Israelis are hoping to blind the regime to domestic threats and decapitate it into submission. As for those Caspian hits? They’ll partly sever a key Iran-Russia weapons supply corridor.

Other:

• While Australia’s central bank just raised, its Japanese and US counterparts have kept their interest rates unchanged, citing wartime instability and uncertainty.

• And speaking of the Aussies, Prime Minister Albanese has urged folks to be sensible when buying fuel, blaming localised shortages on hoarding rather than any actual disruption in supply (though the risks will rise).

• And Brazil’s farm minister has warned the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter (by value) faces a fertiliser crunch if this war doesn’t end soon.

The threats among us.

DC's intelligence chiefs have stepped out of the shadows and into the congressional spotlight for their annual grilling this week.

Sure, it’s all tied to the unclassified Annual Threat Assessment, and spooks love to defer spicy answers to the off-camera closed-door briefings, but it’s still pretty revealing.

So here are the week’s top five spymaster lines you need to know, starting with…

1. "Diplomatically, they were saying one thing; the intelligence was reflecting quite the contrary" – The CIA’s John Ratcliffe 

As this Iran war drags on and the costs mount, the spotlight inevitably shifts to Trump’s justification. And you’ll recall barely days before an Israeli airstrike hit Ali Larijani, the key regime official was still shuttling between Muscat and Doha for last-ditched US talks. In fact, by the time the last Geneva round wrapped late February, reporters on both sides were sounding hopeful as the agenda shifted to technical details — generally a good sign.

But then Trump pulled the trigger. Why? According to Ratcliffe, CIA analysts concluded the Iranians had no genuine intent to abandon their nuclear ambitions, implying the talks were just a ruse to buy time and extract concessions.

Ratcliffe therefore reiterated that Iran "posed an immediate threat at this time." But… 

2. “As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There has been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability” – Trump’s spymaster, Tulsi Gabbard 

To no one’s surprise, senators then narrowed in on Gabbard’s line above: if last year’s strikes had been so decisive, how could Trump then argue the threat was so “imminent”?

Rather than contradict the boss, Gabbard engaged in a bit of Macduffian logic to argue it’s "not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat”. Ie, while spooks clearly assess threats, only the president then has the authority to unilaterally declare “imminent threat” status to justify executive action.

Gabbard was then careful to pivot back to current successes, arguing "the regime in Iran appears to be intact but largely degraded by Operation Epic Fury. Its regional power projection capabilities have been destroyed, leaving limited options." 

3. “Are you saying there is no foreign threat to our elections in the midterms this year? – Mark Warner, Senate Intelligence Committee

Sometimes there’s plenty revealed in what an intel report doesn’t say: for the first time since 2017, DC’s threat assessment makes zero mention of any foreign election interference, even though the high-stakes midterms are just months away. Why?

As your favourite non-partisan team of ex-diplomats, we’ll let you select from the available options, including…

• a) after nine years of consistent annual threat assessments, Putin and others suddenly stopped their meddling or figured out how to avoid detection

• b) per the senator’s suggestion, it all hints at the politicisation or suppression of intelligence under current leadership, and/or

• c) per Gabbard’s claim, this administration is just fixing past politicisation…

4. "The IC assesses that China likely prefers to set the conditions for an eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan short of conflict" – Gabbard 

In a sense, that’s obvious — if you think you can get something for free, why risk a war. But in the context of past assessments, this line still dials down some of the imminence.

And it’s worth recalling some of that imminence stems from famous Georgetown remarks by the CIA’s then-chief, Bill Burns, who warned that, “as a matter of intelligence, we know that [Xi] has instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan”. To be clear, Burns emphasised it was to be ready, not do it.

But it wasn’t just Bill. That 2027 date was already featuring in annual threat assessments because Xi Jinping himself put it there via a big deadline for his military’s modernisation. Why 2027? It’s the People’s Liberation Army’s 100th anniversary.

Still, while Gabbard’s cautious tone might reflect Trump 2.0’s current stabilisation phase on China, the actual report still has spicy lines like this: “China aims to dominate its region and challenge Washington’s leadership”.

5. "Africa has increasingly become a focal point for the global Sunni jihadist movement." — Annual Threat Assessment 2026 

You know we try to brief you beyond the headlines, and it’s not just us warning about the rapid spread of jihadis across Africa’s west while the world focuses elsewhere.

In fact, the report warns that both Al Qaeda and ISIS have recorded their most growth over the past five years by exploiting grievances around local conflicts in Africa.

Anyway, there you have it, dear Intriguer. Sometimes the real intelligence is not just what the spooks say, but what they carefully say, or don’t say at all.

Intrigue’s Take

One big lesson worth drawing from all the above is how quickly assessments can change. You only have to go back to the 2024 report to glimpse fresh references to Netanyahu being on the ropes politically, while Iran was “not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device".

Another is that you don’t need top secret clearance and a seat in congress to know some answers. Eg, the spymasters confirmed that Tehran has sought help from Beijing and Moscow, but they left any Russian/Chinese response to the closed-door briefing.

Yet it’s likely Putin is helping target not just US assets, but energy assets across the Middle East. Why? Higher prices help lift his revenue and (if the West gets desperate enough) lower his sanctions, both of which are necessary to keep his wartime economy afloat.

It’s worth also keeping in mind that, while higher prices clearly help Putin’s war effort, his ultra-costly war effort has also massively shifted the goalposts he must now reach to still survive: his break-even price point for oil is now almost double what it was pre-war.

The thing is, however, with Putin’s other key exports like gas and fertiliser now also firing thanks to Iran, his fiscal situation will look a little less hopeless each month this new war lasts.

Sound even smarter:

• The annual report also includes one of the bluntest-ever US intel assessments that Pakistan’s ICBM program is on track to go intercontinental (ie, reach the US).

• The DIA chief (Lt. Gen. Adams) is due to appear today (Thursday) — you can expect lawmakers to grill him on reports his agency provided the outdated intel that contributed to a deadly US airstrike on the girls’ school in southern Iran.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Meanwhile, in other worlds…

• Tech: A telco lobby group is launching a $40 smartphone across several African countries.

• Business: Australian mining giant BHP has welcomed its new CEO Brandon Craig, known not only for his two first names, but his bullish vibes on copper.

• Art: This year’s Venice Biennale looks as polarised as ever, with the EU threatening to cut funds if the organisers go ahead with plans to approve a Russian pavilion, while over 200 artists want Israel barred.

From our friends

Not just another TL;DR news digest. The Pint is the world’s only meme-based email newsletter, bringing you global news through memes.

After failing (spectacularly) to convince traditional media outlets to open a meme desk, they went rogue and created The Pint. They trudge through global news to deliver a weekly digest of the week’s most memeable moments.

Every Friday. For Free.

Record of the day

Thousands again filled Mexico City’s vast zocalo square on Sunday, but not to protest!

Rather, 9,500 locals joined a mass soccer training session, breaking last year’s world record set in Seattle with a paltry 1,000 participants.

Projecting a more family-friendly image after last month’s cartel violence, it’s part of Mexico’s run-up to June’s FIFA World Cup, which it’ll co-host with the US and Canada.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think is 'winning' the battle for LatAm influence?

🇨🇳 China (tell us why!) (81%)
🇺🇸 The US (tell us why!) (18%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🇨🇳 L.D: “Because China paid attention to South America and the US has pretty much ignored it.”

• 🇨🇳 S.V.C: “US foreign relations shifts on a daily basis. Countries need stability which China will provide (at a cost).”

• 🇺🇸 J.L.Q: “Geographical proximity still is a huge factor, plus debt to US banks, in addition to the money sent to LatAm from expatriates in the US.”

• ✍️ H.L: “Right now it’s probably a tie, but I spend time in Central America every year and for the most part, the people seem more pro-US.”