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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s next in Israel-Gaza |
2️⃣ Intriguing festivals in Korea and Peru |
3️⃣ Flag of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Before we dive into today’s update on what’s next on Israel-Gaza, I thought I’d share a remarkable story I read over the weekend (we took a break for the US long weekend yesterday).
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The FBI just revealed it’s caught a spy. And the interesting bit is that, before charging the spy, the FBI ran what someone has amusingly (and accurately) described as a ‘Truman Show’ against him: they hired the guy at an off-site location then monitored all his contacts with his handlers, for eight years!
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By design, we get only limited windows into how our intelligence agencies operate, but this latest tale hints at the vast scope of the game at play.
THE HEADLINES
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China announces $48B chip fund.
Beijing has launched its largest-ever chip investment fund with backing from state-owned banks. It’s the latest phase in an initiative first launched in 2014, and it comes as the US wields more chip-related sanctions and export controls.
Spain pledges $1B in military aid to Ukraine.
The two countries’ leaders signed a defence deal in Madrid yesterday (Monday) that’ll see $1B of military assistance transferred over the next decade. It comes at a tough time for Ukraine, with Russia continuing to push along multiple fronts. Meanwhile, it appears Hungary is again holding up EU military aid to Ukraine.
Milei reshuffles his cabinet.
Argentinian President Javier Milei has reshuffled his cabinet for the first time since taking office in December, as he struggles to get his ambitious economic reforms through Congress. Interior Minister Guillermo Francos, who’s seen as an experienced politician, will now step up as cabinet chief.
North Korean satellite rocket blows up mid-flight.
North Korean authorities have confirmed that a rocket carrying a second military reconnaissance satellite exploded shortly after take-off yesterday. The launch might’ve been timed to register North Korea’s displeasure with its ally China, which met with US allies South Korea and Japan on Sunday.
ECB poised to cut rates.
The European Central Bank looks set to cut interest rates next week, following hints from several senior ECB officials in recent days. This’ll see the ECB cut sooner than the US Fed, which has traditionally led the way.
TOP STORY
Israel-Hamas talks set to resume this week as violence escalates
The International Court of Justice in The Hague. It delivered Friday’s updated interim ruling on South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.
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Let’s get you up to speed on what’s happened on the Israel-Hamas conflict since our Friday briefing, and what might come next.
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Following South Africa’s request earlier this month, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Friday reiterated and sharpened its orders from January:
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The court reiterated its call on Hamas for the “immediate and unconditional release” of hostages, and for Israel to ensure the “unhindered provision at scale” of urgently needed aid, and
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Noting the “catastrophic living conditions of the Palestinians… had deteriorated further”, the ICJ called on Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part“.
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Interestingly, some of the court’s judges dispute what that last bit actually means. In separate opinions, four argue the ruling isn’t a blanket order for Israel to cease fire, but rather only restricts Israel’s actions to the extent they engage the Genocide Convention (the basis of South Africa’s case against Israel).
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A fifth judge argues the opposite, claiming the court has “in explicit terms” ordered Israel to “halt its offensive in Rafah”.
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So either way, how have Israel and Hamas responded?
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Israel then announced it’d found three more dead hostages (including a Mexican tourist), before Hamas went on to claim it had captured more Israeli soldiers (a claim Israel denies), and fired ~eight rockets at Tel Aviv.
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Later Sunday, Israel conducted airstrikes on tents sheltering Palestinians near Rafah, claiming it killed two “senior” Hamas targets. But after reports of 45+ civilian deaths, graphic footage, and widespread condemnation, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has now described the strike as a “tragic mistake“.
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Meanwhile, an incident yesterday (Monday) between Egyptian and Israeli troops near Rafah has left an Egyptian soldier dead, though it’s unclear what exactly happened. The two neighbours’ 1979 peace deal has been a key stabilising force in the region, but ties have grown frosty as the humanitarian toll in Gaza mounts.
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And that brings us to today (Tuesday), which is when the recent move by Ireland, Norway, and Spain to recognise the State of Palestine takes effect. The argument is that, by joining 140 others, their recognition helps pave the way for talks on a two-state solution “between two sovereign states on an equal footing”.
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But many European (and Western) countries still argue a Palestinian state should come via direct negotiations between the two sides, including on the recognition of Israel itself (~25 Arab and Muslim-majority countries don’t recognise Israel).
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And that’s a lot for a single long weekend…
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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As ever, the timing here is interesting. Israel-Hamas talks are due to resume this week, which makes us wonder if any of this is an effort to boost negotiation positions, or even derail the talks.
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But either way, a pause still looks like a stretch.
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We see four possible triggers for any pause: i) a decision by Hamas to release the hostages, ii) the capture or killing of top Hamas leaders (Sinwar and Deif), iii) the ousting of Netanyahu in Israel, and/or iv) any meaningful withdrawal of US support for Israel.
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But these triggers are – to varying degrees and for different reasons – still unlikely:
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Hamas has little incentive to release its hostages (and cede its leverage) so long as Israel vows to destroy the group either way
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Hamas leaders are still managing to lead operations and hold 100+ hostages despite seven months of Israeli bombardment
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Israel’s leadership is split and this latest Hamas flex highlights the limits of Netanyahu’s strategy, but he continues to benefit from a ‘rally around the flag’ effect (possibly boosted by the ICJ’s ruling), and
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It’s hard to see any US administration stepping away from Israel during an election year, particularly as polling from April still shows high favourability towards Israel (higher than for the Supreme Court).
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So for now, we still see more of the same ahead.
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Also worth noting:
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Israel’s key allies urged it not to expand its operation to Rafah due to the civilian risks. Germany, Israel’s second-largest arms supplier, has now said the images of Israel’s strike on the tent community near Rafah are “unbearable”, and called for an investigation (something Netanyahu now says will happen).
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For its part, the US – Israel’s top arms supplier – has reiterated its view that “Israel has a right to go after Hamas”, but also that “Israel must take every precaution possible to protect civilians.”
A MESSAGE FROM PUCK
What do C.E.O.s, movie moguls, and the West Wing have in common? They all read Puck.
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Puck is a platform for smart, engaging (and, yes, occasionally dishy) journalism, built in partnership with an elite team of authors covering the inside story at the nexus of Washington, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, fashion, sports and the art market.
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You probably know Puck journalist and founding partner, Julia Ioffe. She’s one of America’s foremost voices on Russia-U.S. relations, covering national security, foreign relations, and domestic politics from Washington and Europe.
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Julia’s reporting, as part of Puck’s daily political newsletter The Best & The Brightest, is truly must-read for anyone even remotely connected to foreign policy and defense. She’s sent dispatches from the Aspen Security Forum, the Munich Security Conference, and much more.
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To put it simply, Julia’s access is unmatched.
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She recently chronicled the tragic irony surrounding Vladimir Putin’s fifth coronation and how it entrenches his power to rule Russia as he sees fit.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: Hosting his Russian counterpart in Tashkent yesterday (Monday), the president of Uzbekistan has announced Russia will build a small nuclear power plant in his country. It’ll be the first of its kind in Central Asia.
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🇱🇹 Lithuania: Gitanas Nauseda has been re-elected president with 76% of the vote, beating his main competitor and current prime minister, Ingrida Simonyte. Both candidates agree on boosting defence to counter Russia, though Simonyte has pushed for a tougher line on China.
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🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea (PNG): Authorities fear over 2,000 people may have been buried under a landslide that hit the northern PNG province of Enga early on Friday. Rescue and recovery efforts are underway but have been hindered by debris, unstable terrain, and a lack of equipment.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Brazil has surpassed Belgium as the biggest export destination for China-made EVs and hybrids, according to the latest data. China’s EV makers are pursuing more non-EU markets as rumours swirl that the EU could soon join the US in slapping on new tariffs.
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🇾🇪 Yemen: The Houthis released over 100 war prisoners in a unilateral move on Sunday, a year after the main warring parties in Yemen’s civil war (including the Houthis) released 800 prisoners. A peace process led to a ceasefire in 2022 to end the decade-long conflict, but the agreement later collapsed.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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Google’s new AI-assisted search engine has given some amusing (if odd) advice, urging folks to try using glue to get cheese to stick to their pizzas, and claiming that geologists recommend eating a rock a day.
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In Seoul, hundreds gathered on Sunday for the annual ‘space-out competition’, where participants do nothing for hours in an attempt at reminding Korea’s notoriously hard workers to just chill.
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Folks in Massachusetts are taking sold-out yoga classes with piglets – we’re guessing the mind wanders less when there’s a pig all up in your grille.
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Lopburi, a town in Thailand, is using ripe rambutan fruit in cages to capture and relocate the 2,500 monkeys now roaming its streets.
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And speaking of roaming the streets, hundreds of clowns hit the streets of Peru on Saturday for a celebration that organisers hope will become official, alongside others like Ceviche Day and Lawyers Day.
FLAG OF THE DAY
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South Africa’s elections kick off tomorrow (Wednesday), and polls suggest the long-dominant African National Congress (ANC) party could be forced into a coalition to stay in office, for the first time since it swept to power in 1994.
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So it’s only fitting that we take a quick look at the flag of South Africa, which the country adopted that very same historic year as it emerged out of Apartheid.
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The banner brings together elements of South Africa’s flag history, including the former South African Republic and the ANC itself. But these days, the government urges folks not to attach symbolism to any one colour, but rather to focus on the ‘fly’ shape, which pulls South Africa’s different elements together onto a path forwards in unity.
DAILY POLL
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How would you assess the state of the Western-led world order? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think Macron’s presence in New Caledonia will help calm the situation?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☮️ Yes, he’s got the power to address local grievances (33%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🔥 No, it’ll only pour gasoline on the fire (63%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
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Your two cents:
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☮️ E.F: “Whether they end up staying or going, he has every reason to keep things civil.”
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✍️ S.N: “Regardless of what happens, it’s hard to believe Macron can achieve his goal of making France an international leader when they have so much trouble appeasing their partners and territories.”
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🔥 N.F: “Visiting in 2019, you could already feel this coming with their drive for independence.”
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✍️ B.S: “Elections are on the horizon, so a quick and dirty solution is needed, but the structural problems won’t go away.”
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