Number of the day

22 

That’s how many field training manoeuvres the US and South Korea will practice at this year’s joint military drills, down from 51 last year. Authorities have declined to confirm whether the pared-down drills are linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Day 10

As this war enters its 10th day, here are four possible splits to watch, starting with…

1. US and Israel?

Another alliance wedge might've now emerged amid the weekend's devastating airstrikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, sparking massive fires, acid rain, and toxic smoke across Tehran.

The split? While the US was reportedly in the loop, it's still voicing shock at the scale of this escalation towards Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure. Why? It shifts local hardship from regime-blame to US/Israel-blame, potentially prolonging both the regime and war.

But it also hints at divergence in US-Israeli aims: the Israelis have always seen this regime (of "death to Israel" fame) as an existential threat, trumping any chaos or blowback.

Yet DC's aim has more been to a) de-fang Iran and normalise Israel so the US can pivot elsewhere; plus b) Trump is now describing November's mid-terms in existential terms. And neither aim now looks easy amid the world's biggest energy shock since ~1979.

2. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vs the rest?

Meanwhile, the regime has now confirmed Khamenei Jr is Iran’s new supreme leader: pending any Israeli assassination, that’s a classic wartime signal of unity, continuity, and even defiance, though keep in mind there's always nuance beneath the surface.

• First, it arguably proves IRGC supremacy rather than regime unity: by ramming through a mid-ranked cleric like Khamenei Jr, the IRGC has side-lined old-school regime powerbrokers like the Larijani brothers (natsec Ali and clerical Sadeq), and

• Second, by ramming through the ayatollah’s son, the IRGC might've breached its own revolutionary taboo against the exact kind of monarchic succession it replaced, potentially undermining whatever popular legitimacy it still retains.

So maybe this move strengthens the regime. Or maybe not.

3. Oil vs water?

With crude now up almost 70% in less than two weeks, recording the biggest intra-day price surge in almost half a century, oil understandably dominates the headlines.

But another liquid is rattling the region, too: Saturday’s hit on Iran's Qeshm desalination plant prompted an Iranian hit on a water desal facility in Bahrain the very next day (then just hours ago, the Iranians hit Bahrain’s main oil refinery).

The point? It looks like asymmetrical warfare against soft, high-impact targets to (say) force Iran's regime to talk, or force Bahrain (home to the US Fifth Fleet) to pressure the US.

But that's ultra-high stakes in a region where desal provides nearly all drinking water — we’re talking 90% for Kuwait, 86% for Oman, and 70% for the Saudis, for example. So if this tit-for-tat continues, you're potentially looking at mass city evacuations.

4. Kurd vs Kharg?

Now that Trump has ruled out a CIA-backed Kurdish op amid Turkish anger (vindicating Kurdish doubts around US reliability btw), there's a vibe shift to a Kharg Island strategy instead. The aim of using ground troops to seize Iran’s oil export terminal would be to deliver a coup de grâce that strangles the regime's cashflow and forces its capitulation.

There've also been similar "victory raid" rumours of a possible special ops mission to secure Iran's uranium, likewise enabling President Trump to declare victory and get out.

But while there are influencers out there arguing that seizing Kharg would be easy, it's the holding part that matters — just 25km (15mi) off Iran’s coast, this island is within regime artillery, missile, drone, and fast-boat range. And even if you do hold, that escalation doesn’t necessarily solve the actual problem, which is that maritime insurers are spooked.

So sure, maybe this kind of raid goes to plan, ends the war, and unblocks Hormuz. Or maybe it becomes yet another Middle East casualty and escalation trap for the US.

Intrigue’s Take

With oil now going beyond $110 a barrel while the regime merely replaces Khamenei Sr with Khamenei Jr, it’s hard to see how exactly the war is going to plan at this point.

And to be clear, these surging oil prices reflect an optimistic timeframe for ending this war — take a look at crude oil futures and you’ll see December contracts are still in the $70s!

So maybe that brings us to one last thing: right now the visible spat in the US is more within the president’s base (Tucker vs broader MAGA), but keep an eye on if (say) top cabinet members start getting blamed for their advice or execution.

But in the meantime, the US is still staring it all down, while Iran’s missile and drone capabilities further degrade with each day.

Sound even smarter:

• The US State Department has ordered non-emergency diplomatic staff to leave Saudi Arabia — it’s the war’s first mandatory order for US diplomats.

• Following various rival Greek deployments, Turkey is now sending six F16 fighter jets and air defence systems to northern (aka Turkish) Cyprus.

• G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting today (Monday) to discuss a possible coordinated release of emergency oil reserves — US oil prices have already eased back below $100 on the news.

• Meanwhile, fuel-saving policies are popping up across Asia, whether Bangladesh closing its universities, or the Philippines ordering officials to cut oil usage by 10%.

Today’s briefing is presented by…

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

• India’s supreme court is threatening action after finding a lower court judge used fake AI-generated rulings when resolving a property dispute.

• South Korea’s tax agency has apologised after inadvertently sharing the password to a stash of stolen cryptocurrency, which was swiftly then re-stolen.

• The British meteorological service has unveiled some of the public’s storm name submissions, including Keir Stormer, David Blowy, and Dame Judy Drench.

• A UK YouTuber has used 500 old vape batteries to power a small electric car.

• And a US woman convicted of sneaking onto a NYC-Paris flight in 2024 has now been arrested for similarly sneaking over to Milan.

Mystery of the day

It’s possible and even forgivable you’re not familiar with manga (Japanese comics) let alone One Piece, the best-selling manga in history: it follows the adventures of a pirate crew looking for the ultimate treasure (aka the One Piece).

Anyway, to celebrate selling 600 million copies, One Piece creator Eiichiro Oda just pulled a remarkable stunt, revealing the true identity of the elusive One Piece treasure on a piece of paper locked in a small treasure chest, only to yeet it into the depths of the ocean.

Why? The idea was to keep the truth “far beyond anyone’s reach”, but fans have analysed the video for clues to geolocate the chest, including…

• The cameo by a Japanese Coast Guard vessel

• The sun’s position plus a timestamp

• The absence of any visible coastline when panning southwest, and

• Oda’s stated depth of 651m (2,100ft).

Those and other clues have left Suruga Bay (near Tokyo) as a top fan theory.

Today’s poll

Last Thursday’s poll: Which incident do you think raises the temperature most?

🇱🇰 Sinking the Iranian ship near Sri Lanka (20%)
🇹🇷 Iranian missile approaching Turkey (64%)
🇦🇿 Iranian drones hitting Azerbaijan airport (12%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🇹🇷 E.W: “Evoking NATO genuinely makes this World War III.”

• 🇱🇰 S: “Hitting targets so far out of the theatre feels like it broadens the scope of the war.”

• ✍️ W.K: “Blocking the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will raise the temperature most. Nothing else even comes close.”