Thailand and Cambodia are nearing open war

Here at Intrigue, Friday is for chiller stories to accompany you gently into the weekend.

So we screamed into a cushion when clashes erupted early yesterday (Thursday) near the Ta Muan Thom temple, a UNESCO World Heritage Site long controlled by Thailand but claimed by Cambodia. The fighting then spread along the border, with Thailand claiming Cambodia’s strikes killed at least 15, while Cambodia reported one casualty. 

Of course, this isn’t out of the blue. You’ll recall we gave the full Hollywood treatment to the bold backstory, featuring a bromance, border clashes, then a leaked-call-betrayal between the two families long running these ancient neighbours: Thailand’s Shinawatras, and Cambodia’s Huns. June’s leaked call cost the young Shinawatra her job!

The hostilities stem in part from festering border wounds left by former colonial power France, that now threaten to escalate into a wider conflict. 

Which leads us to three reasons why this matters: 

1. Tourism 

Southeast Asia is a tourism powerhouse, and Thailand alone is a global top-ten destination. And that was before Parker Posey lost her lorazepam in the third season of White Lotus. Some 35 million folks visited last year, supporting one in five local jobs.

Another seven million holidayed next door in poorer Cambodia, where tourism makes up ~10% of the economy. Anyway, tourists don’t like wars. You’ll recall even a wild cross-border scam was enough to dent Thai tourism. So an economic hit feels inevitable.

2. Family feud

While there are real disputes at play, they’re complicated by the powerful dynasties shaping these two neighbours: the Huns in Phnom Penh and the Shinawatras in Bangkok.

Once ‘godbrothers’ and golf buddies, the two patriarchs are now sworn enemies after this latest spat. So a family relationship that was long a stabilising force in the region is now looking more like a curve-ball, with questions of ego, honour, and dynastic survival potentially shaping their choices (even with the Shinawatras now out of the top job).

3. A test for China

Also, China has become increasingly open about the world it seeks ahead: whether it’s ‘new’, ‘multipolar’, or ‘hegemon-free’, President Xi wants out of a US-led order.

And one way he pursues that end is by presenting China as a viable alternative: he’s largely succeeded on the economic front, with China now the top trading partner for 140 nations, including both Thailand and Cambodia.

But on the political side? Xi’s record is still mixed: he helped broker a historic détente between Saudi and Iranian rivals in 2023, but those kinds of headlines have dried up. Why?

• It partly reflects the regional limits of his own power, including China’s smaller security footprint abroad
• It partly reflects Xi’s interests in any given conflict — he openly backed Pakistan over rival India, but wants leverage with both Thailand and Cambodia (China has closer ties with Cambodia, yet significant investments in Thailand)
• It partly reflects his priorities — he still seems to value continued trade and investment flows over high-risk mediation efforts, and…
• It also just partly reflects his schtick — seeking to contrast with the US, he tends to paint China as preferring not to interfere.

Hence China’s fairly muted reaction: there’ve been expressions of concern and offers to facilitate dialogue, but nothing to meaningfully shape how this plays out next.

Ditto, there’s not been much out of the US: Thailand is a major non-NATO ally that buys US hardware, but the US is also wary of spooking Cambodia further into China’s embrace. Plus it wouldn’t help that DC is in the process of tariffing them both (though there’s apparently a deal with Cambodia).

So how will this play out? The gunfire appears to have cooled for now, and neither side can afford a full war. But here we are: the basic border dispute remains unresolved, shots have now been fired, loved ones are now being buried, while a family feud simmers.

Case in point? Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra (the ex-PM and patriarch) just tweeted this:

• “Many countries are concerned about the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, offering to help mediate. I thanked everyone but said I’d like to ask for some time.Because we probably need to let the Thai military do their duty to teach Hun Sen a lesson about his cunning ways first.”

And the acting Thai PM Phumtham just warned the conflict “could escalate into a state of war“.

Good times.

Intrigue’s Take

The world is already going multipolar, so the question now is really to what degree, and on whose terms (if anyone’s). As that plays out, two things will happen:

• As the traditional stabilising presence of a single dominant power (the US) fades, we’ll see more historical regional flashpoints flare through the cracks again, and
• That single stabilising presence will be replaced by the destabilising presence of multiple rivals, who’ll either get too involved while pursuing their own interests, or not involved enough for fear of jeopardising them.

This latest Thai-Cambodia spat feels to us like a sharp illustration of all the above. It’s also a reminder that when the establishment foists weak coalitions on a country (as has happened in Thailand for years now), you get unstable and malleable governments.

Sound even smarter:

• The Thai-Cambodia border is now closed, both capitals have now downgraded their ties, and Bangkok is urging its citizens to get out of Cambodia.
• Thailand appears to have used its US F-16s to hit targets in Cambodia.