The race for jet supremacy

There’s still time to get your gift requests to Santa’s workshop. And if this week’s Dubai Air Show is any indication, lots of governments now have the same thing high up on their wish list: not Labubus, nor K-pop merch, but 🔥 jets🔥.

Here’s what’s happening:

1. The hardware 

The Dubai Air Show is one of the few venues where rivals can still flaunt their fighters side-by-side. We’re talking American F-35s next to Russian Su-57Es and Chinese J-35s.

As always, Lockheed reps point to the F-35’s proven combat record, but that’s a little less special this year: China’s rival AVIC has been flying high since Pakistan used the J-10C to down India’s French-made Rafales earlier this year.

And whatever Russia’s new Su-57E lacks in a track record, stealth tech, or even a plausible production line, its UAC manufacturer is promising to make up via lower costs (half an F-35) plus more tech transfer and domestic assembly for buyers.

Speaking of….

2. The host

Hosting all these rivals side-by-side is on brand for the Emiratis, who’ve spotted a gap in our splintering world for a neutral hub or showroom, whether hosting massive AI investments, US air force squadrons, a French naval base, or even Putin himself in 2023.

But the Emiratis aren’t just playing host. They just signed a massive $38B deal for 65 Boeing airliners, and unveiled their China-built L-15s. These are just training jets, but they carry a message: the UAE ordered them shortly after the US declined to sell F-35s.

The message? We have options. Maybe unlike…

3. The absentees

News is breaking that Germany and France are rethinking the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), their €100B sixth-gen aircraft project with Spain. Why? Two key players Airbus and Dassault have been squabbling over who designs, supplies, and controls it.

So there’s talk of just scaling FCAS back to its ‘combat cloud’ pillar rather than, you know, an actual jet. But that’s tricky because this new FCAS jet — Europe again joining forces to compete — was meant to help replace Eurofighters and Rafales from the 2040s.

But instead, there’s potentially (see below) a gap emerging in Europe’s defence offering, right as it’s hustling to fill US gaps (though an Italy-UK-Japan jet collab is also in the works). Speaking of the US…

4. The showstopper

The biggest jet story this week might actually happen in DC, where the Saudi crown prince is due today (Tuesday) for his first White House visit since ordering the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi back in 2018.

And word is the US might finally now sell the F-35 to the Saudis. It’s unclear where all the horse-trading will land, but…

• The Saudis want F-35s, US civilian nuclear tech, and firmer US defence pledges
• The US wants the Saudis to finally recognise Israel via the Abraham Accords, and
• Israel wants that too but is wary of losing its edge as the only regional power flying the F-35, in a favourable regional balance pledged via a 2008 US law.

So yes, these air shows are partly just about doing sweet tricks up in the sky while military jocks crane their necks (such as they are) to see. But they’re also much, much more.

Intrigue’s Take

We popped a sneaky ‘see below’ above, but now that you’re ‘below’, it’s time to ‘see’: the other big jet story that caught our eye featured Ukraine’s President Zelensky wrapping a European tour where he’s flagged plans to buy up to 250 fighter jets from the US (F-16s), France (Rafales) and Sweden (Gripens). It raises all kinds of questions, like…

• How? There are already backlogs, and running different jet systems is costly
• When? Beyond symbolic deliveries, this is realistically a decade-long venture, and
• With what cash? The Belgium-based body holding Russia’s frozen assets is now warning it could sue the EU over plans to use them for Ukraine’s self-defence.

So what’s really going on here? For us, it’s an example of how flying death machines aren’t just about dropping bombs on targets, but also lobbing messages at hurdles:

• Sweden and France dig the public endorsement of their arms exports
• Ukraine digs the signal that the West is invested long-term
• The US digs the signal that Europe is shouldering more of the burden
• The EU digs the pressure this puts on hold-outs around using Russia’s assets, and
• All the above dig a chance to satisfy domestic audiences wanting more support for Ukraine’s self-defence.

Meanwhile, the whole focus on jets this week also sends a broader message about the future of manned platforms themselves: while drones are reshaping war, it seems capitals are still betting they’ll augment — not replace — jets for the foreseeable future.