The world reacts to that Oval Office meeting

If Friday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had wrapped around the 40-minute mark, it might’ve passed like any other — grip and grin before the two delegations head next door for a bit of roast tenderloin and steamed vegetable, sign their minerals deal, then fly off into the weekend.

But it was around the 40-minute mark that things really collapsed into a shouting match, triggered by a clash between the Ukrainian president and VP JD Vance.

When Zelensky asked Vance what kind of diplomacy without security guarantees could realistically stop Putin, things quickly got heated. The entire presser is worth a look, but here are just three quick quotes to give you a (very spicy) flavour:

• Trump: “You’re either going to make a deal, or we’re out“
• Zelensky: “I’m not playing cards” (in response to Trump saying he had none), and
• Vance: “Have you said thank you once?” (“a lot of times“, responded Zelensky).

The whole unprecedented affair left Ukraine’s ambassador with her head literally in her hands before the White House booted the Ukrainians out, and Trump then tweeted that Zelensky could only return when he’s ready for peace.

Now, let’s take a quick look at how this is rippling around four capitals:

1. 🇺🇸 Washington, DC

While opposition lawmakers were dismayed and Vance had to adjust his Vermont family ski trip amid local protests, the White House has since been amplifying messages of support from his cabinet and party. The gist here includes two basic arguments:

• Zelensky showed a lack of gratitude and respect for the US, and
• Ukraine needs to re-think its attitude (and even its leader) or the US will walk.

With pressure to deliver on his campaign promises of peace, Trump seems to have calculated that he can’t or won’t push Putin for concessions, so he’s offering him unilateral US concessions instead (like Pete Hegseth’s cyber ceasefire in today’s headlines), while pressing Zelensky hard. Speaking of whom…

2. 🇺🇦 Kyiv, Ukraine 

Zelensky soon tweeted his thanks again to the US, then went on Fox to elaborate that a peace deal without US security guarantees will just give Putin a break before he attacks again. When asked if he thought he should apologise, Zelensky responded “I am not sure we did something bad“, though noted Friday’s meeting wasn’t good for either side.

And since then, Zelensky has now reiterated that a) he’s willing to step down if it brings real peace (ie, with Ukraine in NATO deterring more Russian aggression), and b) he’s still ready to sign the minerals deal.

And speaking of which, Trump elaborated during the meeting, suggesting the presence of US workers digging for Ukrainian minerals would serve as an effective deterrent against Russia, though the deal leaves open when (if ever) US workers might actually arrive.

Anyway, while voicing appreciation for the avalanche of support he then received from dozens of world leaders, Zelensky headed straight to…

3. 🇬🇧 London, United Kingdom

This is where UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted Sunday’s emergency summit with 18 other Western world leaders, culminating in a four-point plan to:

• i) Keep economic pressure on Russia and security assistance flowing to Ukraine
• ii) Ensure any lasting peace includes Ukraine and respects Ukraine‘s sovereignty
• iii) Back any peace plan by bolstering Ukraine’s defence against Russia, and
• iv) Develop a ‘coalition of the willing‘ to defend any peace deal.

Meanwhile, some of the European comments on the sidelines hinted again at the stark reality that Europe will really need to level-up — Poland’s Donald Tusk, for example, put it like this: “500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. […] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”

And as for those 140 million Russians…?

4. 🇷🇺 Moscow, Russia

Kremlin figures and state TV outlets have remained pretty triumphant.

Putin’s deputy on the security council (Medvedev) rejoiced that the “insolent pig [Zelensky] finally got a proper slap down“, and Putin’s spokesperson welcomed Trump’s “rapidly changing foreign policy configurations” which “largely coincide with our vision“.

This doesn’t reflect any new success in Putin’s basic war aims on the ground.

Rather, the above sense of jubilation in Moscow reflects something somehow potentially even bigger than the prospect of this war ending on Russian terms with US help: specifically, Putin’s state media outlets have now welcomed what they see as an emerging future in which a troika of strongmen (Putin, Trump, and Xi) will carve up the world.

The foreign minister of US ally Germany summed it up as a world in which “the strength of law” is replaced by “the law of the strong”.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Powers rise and fall, but arguably only one has ever emerged on top then immediately limited its own power — the US did that after WWII, driving the development of the UN, international law, a rules-based trading system, and so on. Its basic insight was that eventually, some other power would rise, so longer-term US interests were best served by erecting basic, credible guardrails beforehand.

Now, there’ve long been seasons when folks have forecast the end of that order, or the weakening of US leadership within it. But the current level of alarm across Europe reflects more than just a system creaking under pressure. Even among those wishing Zelensky had kept his cool, or agreeing on the need for Europe to contribute more to its own defence, or even seeing Trump’s moves as mere posturing to press for a deal… there’s a deeper, creeping fear at this point that the US no longer even sees the value of its own international system.

The EU’s top diplomat (and former leader of US ally Estonia) Kaja Kallas put it like this after Friday’s meeting: “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.”

Also worth noting:

• The Trump administration is reportedly exploring a role for US investors to participate in a revival of the (in)famous Nord Stream gas pipelines for Russian gas into Europe.
• Norway has confirmed it’ll keep resupplying US ships after a local fuel supplier called for a boycott in response to the recent breakdown in US-Ukraine ties.