The Trump administration may not take office until 20 January, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken channelled the former and future president when he changed US foreign policy by tweet on Tuesday. Blinken recognised exiled opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia as Venezuela’s “president-elect” in an unexpected move that could lock in US policy for years to come.
First, how did we get here?
In July, Venezuela held presidential elections that observers from the Carter Center said “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” Nevertheless, President Nicolás Maduro claimed victory, despite:
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- Refusing to release official tally results (he still hasn’t released them)
- Exit polls conducted on election day pointed to an opposition win
- Election tallies collected by the opposition from 83% of voting districts suggested a comfortable win for González.
But those are mere inconveniences when an incumbent with an excellent track record of stealing elections decides he’d like to stay in power a little longer. Maduro’s declaration of victory was followed by widespread protests in Venezuela, prompting a harsh but predictable crackdown from the government.
Fearing retribution from the regime, government critics and members of the opposition fled Venezuela, including González who is currently exiled in Spain. Exhortations from an increasingly long list of Western and Latin American governments to release the official results have had no effect on Nicolás Maduro, who’s accused everybody and their dog of plotting a coup against him.
For keen Intriguers, this should ring a bell
The US, UK, and EU refused to acknowledge Maduro’s election win in 2018, instead recognising Juan Guaidó as the rightful Venezuelan president. At one point, Guaidó was recognized as Venezuela’s “interim” president by ~60 countries while Maduro was only recognised by about 20.
But Guaidó’s claim to the presidency never really went anywhere, and in 2021 the EU went back on its decision. One year later, the major opposition groups decided to dissolve the interim government.
So, why is the Biden administration doing this again, and why now?
The simple answer is we don’t know. We’ve got one idea, but it’s a guess so we’ll save it for the Intrigue’s Take below.
On one hand, Trump might be happy with this shift in policy — his first administration adopted a ‘maximum pressure’ approach against Maduro, and his hand-picked Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio has built his foreign policy career around hardline criticism of leftist regimes in Latin America. There’s nothing to suggest Trump would go soft on Venezuela.
But on the other, Maduro is unlikely to take this news well and could decide to make life difficult for the incoming US president. For a president elected on one of the most isolationist foreign policy platforms in the modern era, it will be interesting to see whether Trump prioritises punishing Maduro or pursuing his domestic priorities.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There’s speculation among folks we’ve talked to that Trump wanted to cut a deal with Maduro to achieve his immigration policy goals. We’ve written before that Donald Trump will need to work with Latin American countries if he’s to fulfil his promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and the only country in the region the US has major leverage over right now is Venezuela (okay, maybe Cuba as well).
Again, it’s only speculation but it’s reasonable to think Maduro would at least consider a deal to accept a large number of deported immigrants from the US in exchange for a thawing of US-Venezuela relations.
So back to the original question — conventional wisdom would suggest that this policy shift makes it harder for Trump to work with Maduro, and the reason the Biden administration announced this now is to make sure years of isolation and pressure aren’t undone on 20 January.
But we all know Trump has no time for conventional wisdom and if he wants to strike a deal with Maduro, a tweet from a lame-duck Secretary of State isn’t going to stop him.
Also worth noting:
- When asked about the timing of the development, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller responded: “It has nothing to do with us being at the end of the administration”, rather the Biden White House was waiting to see “if the international pressure […] would lead to a change in posture from his [Maduro’s] part”.
- Demand for the US dollar has spiked since the July elections, as citizens fear a complete devaluation of the bolivar that could lead to out-of-control inflation.
