Why are millions of Afghans fleeing Pakistan?


Vast numbers of undocumented Afghan migrants have fled Pakistan to avoid arrest and forced deportation ahead of a 1 November (today) deadline.

28 days ago, Pakistan ordered all unregistered migrants (including more than 2 million Afghans) to return to their countries of origin by today.

Some 600,000 Afghans had crossed into Pakistan after the Taliban’s return in 2021, often fearing Taliban rule and its associated reprisals.

Others have lived in Pakistan for decades or were even born there after the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, with few real ties to Afghanistan.

So the UN has warned that Pakistan is risking a “human rights catastrophe”.

But Pakistan says it’s responding to security concerns, claiming 14 of the 24 suicide bombings since February have been carried out by Afghan nationals. Both the Taliban and the US have denied any role by Afghan refugees.

Intrigue’s take: Aside from the stark ethical dimension here, there’s a heady mix of politics and geopolitics at play.

On politics, Pakistan’s caretaker government is meant to be arranging fair elections, but it’s seen as a continuation of the last unpopular administration.

On geopolitics, Pakistan’s erstwhile support for the Taliban has backfired, with the group’s local affiliates fuelling a violent insurgency in Pakistan.

So this mass deportation order partly looks like an attempt to bolster legitimacy at home, while pressuring the Taliban to change its tune abroad.

There’s evidence it’s popular with Pakistanis weary of hosting millions of Afghans, but it’s hard to see the Taliban becoming a better neighbour as a result.

Also worth noting: 

  • Pakistan has defended the move as an “exercise of Pakistan’s sovereign domestic laws”, while calling on the world to help.
  • There are an additional 1.4 million documented Afghan migrants and refugees who Pakistan says may stay in the country.
Latest Author Articles
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire wobbles

It’s been three weeks since Israel and Hamas signed a deal that put a tentative end to their ~16 months of devastating conflict.  The pact ramped up the flow of aid into the strip and enabled the return of an initial 16 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and more than 730 Palestinian prisoners in Israel. […]

14 February, 2025
Did the US just ditch Ukraine?

As world leaders, chief diplomats, and defence leaders alike board their private jets to Munich today, just know that their teams are re-writing every briefing note and messaging strategy in the wake of Washington’s mic drop only hours ago.  Here’s what happened.  Speaking first from Brussels at the UK-chaired Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the […]

13 February, 2025
Canada’s Trudeau resigns as PM, to stay on until new leader chosen

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned as Liberal Party leader and will end his term as PM as soon as an internal party successor has been named, Trudeau told the press at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday morning.  Trudeau’s resignation ends his nine-year term in power, marked by an open-revolt ending with numerous […]

6 January, 2025
Biden blocks Nippon Steel deal

With less than two weeks in US President Joe Biden’s term, the outgoing president blocked Japan’s Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9B purchase of US Steel, citing national security and supply chain concerns.

3 January, 2025