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Three big escalations for Iran

Welcome to day seven of the Third Gulf War which (per a line via Holly Dagres) is now more of a Gulf War than the first two Gulf Wars. Right now, the three big questions revolve around succession, secession, and suppression (always applaud outstanding alliteration). So let’s start with… Any list of folks denied their […]

Scratch regional: this war has gone global

Iran thought it was fighting the US and Israel. The US and Israel thought they were fighting Iran. But then others started getting added to the group chat without consent. Welcome to Thursday, Intriguers, because there are some new situations to monitor, starting with… You’ll have seen a US submarine sank the Iranian naval frigate […]

Three things you need to watch in Iran

Again, with everything shifting so rapidly, here’s your quick recap since our last briefing: So with that quick update, here are the three things you need to track ahead:  If 2024 was the year of the Red Sea, and 2025 was the year of the Panama Canal, 2026 is shaping up as the year of […]

This is already a regional war

Things are moving fast, so let’s start with a quick “previously on The West Wing” recap. Since our last briefing, the US has achieved full air superiority over Tehran, broadened its target list (eg, a state TV broadcaster got hit), and its Israeli allies have broadcast a Netanyahu message in Farsi over Iran’s hacked TV […]

Uncategorized 3 March, 2026

Geopolitics
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Three surprising election results

We got three electoral surprises Sunday, so let’s explore why each matters, starting in… Newish conservative PM Sanae Takaichi was always going to win, but she’s now got i) a standalone supermajority, after ii) Japan’s biggest single-party victory in post-war history. So… why does this matter? So… what next? Takaichi not only wants to continue […]

9 February, 2026
The geopolitics of the Winter Olympics

Italy’s Winter Olympics opening ceremony kicks off in just a few hours, meaning we’ll soon burn our evenings watching snowboarders called ‘Tanner’ and ‘Yui’ pull sick Frontside Double Cork 1080 Lien-to-Melon Reverts. But it also means that, as with any event bringing the world together, geopolitics is now in the air (doing a sick Frontside […]

6 February, 2026
The geopolitics of Epstein 2.0

Some 42 days after they were due, the US justice department finally shared the latest Epstein files on Friday, featuring three million pages, 180,000 images, and 2,000 videos. While it all pours more sordid pressure on familiar US figures (Trump, Clinton, Gates, Musk, Summers, Lutnick and beyond), it’s also reverberating around the world, starting in… […]

2 February, 2026
Trade, travel, and security: three key world leader trips of the week

Any travel nerd will tell you the best time to fly is right after the holidays: lower prices, quieter lounges, fewer tantrums. World leader entourages are more likely to serve the tantrums than suffer them, but several are still travelling right now so let’s look at three:  China’s year of the fire horse involves a […]

30 January, 2026
ECONOMICS
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The central bank war for independence

US stocks and the US dollar plunged again on Monday after the president colourfully called on Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, to cut rates.  Anyway, while this monetary soap opera plays out on the world stage, it’s reignited a debate that everyone thought was resolved decades ago: the notion that central banks must be independent from politics.  Why? The […]

23 April, 2025
A moron premium in the US?

We’ve been writing about bonds before they were the flavour of the week. And events now dictate that we revisit bonds again. Who are we to argue with events, dear Intriguer? Typically if US stocks tank, spooked investors will shift their cash over into bonds — the ultimate safe-haven. Why? When you buy bonds (loan the US government money), […]

14 April, 2025
Did Trump just blink?

Just after our last edition hit your inbox, Donald Trump decided to: Of course, markets breathed a semi-sigh of relief. But… did Trump blink? Here are the three main arguments you need to know: Treasury Secretary Bessent argues this was all part of Trump’s successful strategy, with 75 countries now reportedly lining up to negotiate […]

10 April, 2025
Trump and Xi play chicken

We’ve already explored Trump’s tariffs, but it’s worth a quick recap of his rationale before we tour today’s wild ripple effects: And while he’s now slapped tariffs on everyone (otherwise he says China just reroutes via third countries), the big kahuna tariffs are now really on China. Building on earlier tariff rounds during Trump 1.0 and Biden… The […]

9 April, 2025
Technology
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The massive supply chain shortage you didn’t know about

You’d think 2026 already had enough on, but no — someone has gone out and helpfully coined an entirely new genre of Armageddon: not nuclear, not biblical, but supply chain: So what’s driving this impending RAMageddon? Intrigue’s hard-core nerds will forgive us when we casually split chips into three families: First there are the compute […]

18 February, 2026
Should all countries launch their own LLMs?

While you might know beautiful Chile for its copper, its wines, its pisco-fight with Peru, or its ridiculously long and skinny profile like it’s spooning Argentina (nena, wake up), there’s now a new reason: Chile just launched Latin America’s own large language model.  Creatively named LatAm-GPT, the idea is to “develop capabilities in the region […]

12 February, 2026
Behold… Pax Silica!

For those who didn’t blow a decade learning Latin so you can use the Vatican’s famous Latin-language ATMs, pax means peace and silica is the mineral throughout the Earth’s crust, like sand — refine it enough and you get the foundation of modern tech: silicon. The State Department just launched Pax Silica as a US-led […]

16 December, 2025
Why this streaming mega-merger is everyone’s business

Just days after Netflix announced its $83B offer for Hollywood’s legendary Warner Bros studio, rival Paramount has now entered the fray with its own hostile $108B bid.  And we haven’t seen a better love triangle since Edward and Jacob battled it out for Bella’s heart in the Twilight saga.  But the world is now watching […]

10 December, 2025