Russia’s economy limps on


Briefly: Russia is reportedly preparing to restock its foreign currency reserves for the first time since its invasion of Ukraine. This pivot from burning cash to stashing it suggests Moscow is managing to mend its budget, which has buckled under massive wartime spending.

How’s Moscow doing this? 

  • 🛢️ It changed its tax rules, forcing oil producers to pay more tax, and
  • 📉 Its weak ruble means taxes paid in foreign currencies stretch further

Countries use foreign reserves to stabilise their currency and ensure payment for imports. But of course, Western sanctions mean Moscow can’t just stock up on US dollars or euros like everyone else. So it’ll likely buy Chinese yuan instead.

Intrigue’s take: Huge Chinese and Indian purchases have helped push Russian oil exports to their highest volumes since early 2020. But Western sanctions have suppressed Russian oil prices, so its revenues are still 43% lower than a year ago.

So all in all, the market seems to be telling us that Western sanctions are biting, just not enough to end Russia’s war machine. At least, not yet.

Also worth noting:

Latest Author Articles
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire wobbles

It’s been three weeks since Israel and Hamas signed a deal that put a tentative end to their ~16 months of devastating conflict.  The pact ramped up the flow of aid into the strip and enabled the return of an initial 16 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and more than 730 Palestinian prisoners in Israel. […]

14 February, 2025
Did the US just ditch Ukraine?

As world leaders, chief diplomats, and defence leaders alike board their private jets to Munich today, just know that their teams are re-writing every briefing note and messaging strategy in the wake of Washington’s mic drop only hours ago.  Here’s what happened.  Speaking first from Brussels at the UK-chaired Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the […]

13 February, 2025
Canada’s Trudeau resigns as PM, to stay on until new leader chosen

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned as Liberal Party leader and will end his term as PM as soon as an internal party successor has been named, Trudeau told the press at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday morning.  Trudeau’s resignation ends his nine-year term in power, marked by an open-revolt ending with numerous […]

6 January, 2025
Biden blocks Nippon Steel deal

With less than two weeks in US President Joe Biden’s term, the outgoing president blocked Japan’s Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9B purchase of US Steel, citing national security and supply chain concerns.

3 January, 2025